Monday, June 18, 2012

I don't think Microsoft will "redefine mobile computing" with Surface


I don't think Microsoft will "redefine mobile computing" with Surface, and here I tell you why.

For what I looked today, the Surface it's just same old fashion Windows but in a different form-factor... with a "cool" keyboard accessory, touchscreen and a stylus pen input.

Deja-vu anyone? Yeah, Ultra Books, Netbooks, Tablet-PC's have had all of that for years. It's a PC packed into a more portable package but wait... with less RAM, less storage and less USB ports which is the reason some of us still have Desktops and Laptops, because if you run a full fledged Desktop OS, you need a full fledged PC right?

At the beginning Surface devices will be too expensive and too limited in specs compared to PCs. And guess what? Intel x86 Surface tablets that do run Windows 8, run existing PC programs that need huge amounts of RAM and HDD storage space! And if you get the Surface tablet with Windows RT I have bad news for you, because you won't be able to run any program that runs in the Intel sibling because they won't be compatible until their respective Developers create an alternative ARM processor compatible version.

Yes, it's the post-PC era, but that does not mean that you'll pack what you use to have in your desktop/laptop PC in a tablet form-factor and you instantly will have a post-PC device!

After all, I'm not here to be a pundit and criticize Microsoft on a destructive way... I'm here to give my opinion and my two cents about what I think this means:

For me, this is just the 1st step of a long term strategy... Microsoft finally pays attention to the hardware... yeah, but the potential of Surface are not the devices themselves... I see this as a long term strategy... I bet that MS will soon tell us that things like Azure and SkyDrive are going to sync MS Office docs and other Apps docs to Windows 8 Phone handsets and PCs, they will tell us that a yet to know "MS Program Store" will allow you to get Windows 8 and Windows Phone 8 applications on a snap with a reasonable profit share with Developers and they will tell us that a decent bump-up to Development tools is coming... then man, that's redefining something!, that's Microsoft redefining itself!

It will be a long and harsh road with hard goals to achieve, such as:

- Convince PC users to ditch their Netbooks, Notebooks and Desktops for inferior Surface devices (the spec is not dead yet in the minds of the average PC user).

- They have to explain PC manufacturers their new strategy that includes licensing Windows 8 to run on 3rd party "Non-Microsoft-Surface" devices, but also to compete against them with their own Microsoft branded devices.

- Conquer App Developers interest and convince us to bring out Apps to their yet to come " MS Program Store", improve the current Windows PC programs to use less resources and improve performance on such a limited device, and convince us that rapid user growth and ROIs will come quickly.

- Redmond really needs to polish the Visual Studio Development Tools and Server-Side services to make developing for this devices easy and make them use Azure, Passport IDs, Skydrive APIs and sync with Windows Phone 8 handsets. 

But look, it is not an impossible task, pundits told the same about the Open Handset Alliance when Google jump-started Android, and look at Android today, it's huge! It will be a long road, but Microsoft is still a titan of the industry with lots of cash, I would not be surprised if they achieve from 10% to 20% of the mobile device market in the next 3 years, they are experts on getting things right ( or copying them :P ) on the 3rd or 4th attempt and they will for sure capitalize some of that billion PC users in this transition.

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